The Alan Sondheim Mail Archive


In the 1970s I taught a course in 'futurology' at the Rhode Island School
of Design; called The Year 3000, we used everything from extrapolation
through scenario through delphi methodology. The course was developed
after Forrester, Club of Rome, RIO, etc. When the Carter report towards
the year 2000 appeared, that was also incorporated. Remember that Reagan
threw it out.

I'm finding too many of the predictions we considered were far too accur-
ate. Now along comes the following CIA report, which I think should be, at
least in the US, required reading. Even given the conservative methodology
and agenda, it's frightening. It's also a good summary of the challenges
for the next administration, which already appears incompetent, somewhat
illicit, and frighteningly heading towards missile defense (read offense)
and the usual bullying militarism.

It's a long hard ride ahead - Alan


DCI & CIA Reports

   Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment
   Experts
   National Intelligence Council Report.
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/globaltrends2015/index.html

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